The closure of two refinery facilities could cause gas prices to shoot up in the Golden State by 75 percent.

California could have some of the highest gas prices in the world if a new report is to be believed. Los Angeles’ KTLA reports on a new report out of USC’s Michael A. Mische of USC’s Marshall School of Business. According to the report, the closure of the Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles and a Valero refinery in Northern California will reduce the state’s oil output by 21 percent. While that might not seem like much, it’ll be enough to increase California’s gas prices by over $3.50 vs. what they are today. From KTLA:

“The estimated average consumer price of regular gasoline could potentially increase by as much as 75% from the April 23, 2025, price of $4.816 to $7.348 to $8.435 a gallon by calendar year end 2026. We can expect retail prices to be even higher in counties such as Mono and Humboldt,” Mische wrote.

The report states that California currently consumes more than 13.1 million gallons of gasoline daily. With the state producing just under 24% of its crude needs, the loss of refining capacity could create a deficit of 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons per day.”

State lawmakers are scurrying to warn Governor Gavin Newsom about the report’s contents, urging the governor to stop refinery closures in the state. Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones (R-San Diego) penned a letter to the Governor, saying residents across the state will be blindsided by the increased fuel costs. “If the Governor doesn’t act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods. “We’re talking about gas prices over $8.43 per gallon by the end of next year.” 

The governor’s office doesn’t seem to think the report is a big deal, however. In a statement to KTLA,  Daniel Villaseñor, a spokesperson for Governor Newsom, pushed back against the report, saying that Newsom had recently been directing “the state to redouble efforts to work with refiners to ensure a safe, affordable and reliable supply of gasoline.” Whatever happens, now might be a good time to either buy an e-bike or think about getting an EV.